Interest Rates and Mortgage Bonds (Interest Rates jumped this week) – Mortgage bonds were stopped cold from their 4-week rally and lost all of the October 2026 gains they had. Interest rates also lost all positive October 2026 gains. 10 Year Bond jumped from 4.878% to 5.137% by end of the week – not good news for interest rates. We got punished all week. Stocks were down for most of the week, continued pressure on Tech Stocks + AI Stocks. Especially, NVDA with a potential scandal. Interesting enough, interest rates continued to sell off with the spy news potentially in NVDA, Microsoft being down for a whole day on Thursday from a possible cyber-attack, and then all US Airlines being grounded all day Friday. The Friday Event also had reports impacting railroads and Workday from what I gathered, impacting the likes of Target, Costco, and Walmart. Something appears to be off and what is crazy is, the interest rate and bond market didn’t budge. The US Airlines grounding hasn’t happened to that level since 9/11/2001. For comparison, interest rates plummeted then and today they are still creeping up, like nothing is happening? Very strange IMO. As of right now, Mortgage News Daily has the average 30 year fixed conventional nationally – 7.50% (Last Friday was 7.17%). As I stated earlier, 4 weeks or prior positive gains were erased in just this week and mostly based on slightly elevated or sticky inflation reports from this week. With us past this pressure packed inflation report week, hopefully, we can regain some positive momentum with interest rates? Pivoting to the next Federal Reserve Meeting, chances are still elevated for a .25% hike at the December 2026 Meeting (CMEFedWatch Tool has an 88.5% chance of a .25% hike or a 11.5% chance of a .50% hike on December 09, 2026. The .50% is crazy with inflation barely outside the 2.00% target!). We are watching this closely + this weeks rain forecasts = How local real estate will react?
Real Estate Locally – Transactions continue to happen, still mostly with larger seller credits or concessions. Nationally, (NAR) reported a 5.5% monthly decline and an 8.8% year-over-year decline, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate to just 3.75 million. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the weakness to mortgage rates, which have tested levels not seen since 2000. The report also indicated that inventory slightly raised too. Prices also continued to rise slightly. The housing affordability index continue to erode. Days on market went from 33 days in September to 35 days on market in October. Out in our neck of the woods (The West), sales dipped almost twice the rate of the national stat 9.9% vs 5.5% monthly decline.
National Numbers & Outside Influences on R/E and mortgage markets – 1) Consumer Price Index came in 0.1% hotter than expected, 2) Producer Price Index came in as expected, 3) both inflation reports continue to prove sticky inflation but not as elevated if you look at core inflation without food & energy, 4) Retail Monitor shows signs of consumer strain, 5) Bank of England hikes interest rates, 6) oil finished the week at $88/barrel, under $90 is a good trend, 7) gas continued to fall, another good trend, and 8) gold & metals got beat up this week again.
Next week Reports – 1) ADP Jobless Claims, 2) Retail Sales, 3) NAHB Housing Market Index, 4) Mortgage Apps, 5) Housing Starts and Permits, 6) Pending Homes Sales, 7) Fed Minutes from prior meeting, and 8) Jobless claims. A lot of data this week, retail sales, pending home sales, Fed Minutes, and jobless claims could all move the needle one way or the other. Fortunately, not much on inflation next week.
Mortgage News – The bill that passed the U.S. House on Veterans Day (Nov. 11, 2026) is the Take Care of America’s Veterans Act (H.R. 9237), which includes significant changes to VA mortgage costs and benefits. It increases costs to assume a VA Mortgage + increases or doubles the costs of a VA IRRRL thru the VA Funding Fee. This is not help and I wonder if it is brought to the Presidents Desk, will he veto it? This is not a good thing for our Vets IMO.
Product Updates or Enhancements – None this week.
Overall Discussions we are having – This week the discussion pivoted to those that were entering escrow or contract, to be vigilant on locking interest rates and taking advantage of our float-down options were the apply. For us, interest rates jumped about .375% on most products. Clients that experienced, this locked and became aware of the possible one-time float-down option while they were in-escrow. There are terms and triggers for this to kick-in for free, but it is a way to quickly lock in the interest rate, protect from the interest rate going up, and to also benefit from the interest rates going down while you are in-escrow. Ask us about the Float-Down Option.
Enjoy your weekend, hope you found this report helpful, and I am around for any questions. Take care.
